Three charts that are warning signs flashing for Trump on Iran war

March 27, 2026

President Trump's approval ratings have declined significantly since beginning his second term in January, dropping from 52% overall approval to 40%, with economic approval falling to just 29% - lower than any point during Biden's presidency. The decline is attributed to persistent concerns about high prices and cost of living, which have been worsened by an ongoing war with Iran that has pushed gas prices near $4 per gallon. While Trump retains strong support from his Republican base, with 86% backing the Iran military action, independent voters are turning against him, and Democrats have been performing approximately 13% better in 2025 special elections compared to 2024 results in the same districts.

Who is affected

President Donald Trump (experiencing declining approval ratings)
The American public (facing high gas prices near $4/gallon and elevated cost of living)
Republican Party and congressional candidates (facing potential losses in upcoming midterm elections)
Democrats (benefiting from special election wins and improved performance)
Independent voters (shifting away from Trump)
Michael Whatley (North Carolina Senate candidate and former RNC chairman)

What action is being taken

The U.S. is conducting military intervention in Iran (the war is ongoing, now three weeks in)
Democrats are winning contested special elections at higher rates than in 2024
The Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) is gathering near Dallas, Texas
Polling companies like Ipsos, Quinnipiac, and Pew Research Center are tracking public opinion
Anthony Zurcher is publishing a weekly newsletter covering Trump's second term

Why it matters

This matters because Trump's declining approval ratings, particularly among independent voters who were key to his 2024 victory, threaten Republican control of Congress in the November midterm elections. The president's economic approval rating has fallen to historic lows (29%), even below Biden's worst marks during post-pandemic inflation, undermining Trump's claim to an electoral mandate. The ongoing Iran war is exacerbating economic concerns by driving up gas prices and disrupting the global economy, creating a dangerous political environment for an incumbent party just seven months before critical elections that could result in Democrats regaining congressional power and potentially derailing Trump's policy agenda on immigration, tariffs, government cuts, and tax reform.

What's next

No explicit next steps stated in the article

Read full article from source: BBC